巴菲特承認去年投資錯誤

金融海嘯確實令許多價值投資者墮入價值陷阱，股神巴菲特之旗艦巴郡去年業績便大倒退，而每股帳面值更加下跌9.6%，為1965年自他接手後以來最差，連他自己也不得不承認去年投資有所失誤。反觀大鱷索羅斯的量子基金於2008年便有10%之正回報，所以有時投資不能像信仰一樣，盲目相信過去成功的模式或單一投資心法，而需要就環境的改變而在策略上作出相應的轉變。

巴郡2008的年報
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/WSJ-20090228-berkshireletter.pdf

巴郡盈利跌62% [明報]
2009年2月28日
美國「股神」巴菲特公布巴郡去年業績，盈利下跌62%，有約49.9億美元，較預期為差。
巴郡公布，由於投資及衍生工具有75億美元的虧損，令去年業績跌62%，每股盈利只有3224美元，較市場預期為差。

巴菲特承認去年投資錯誤 [明報]
2009年2月28日
美國「股神」巴菲特承認，去年購買大量能源公司Conoco Phillips的股票，是其中一個主要投資錯誤。巴菲特在給股東的信中表示，他在去年油價高峰時，增至Conoco Phillips的股票，由2007年的1750萬股，增至2008年尾的8490萬股，沒有預計能源價格大幅下跌，令股東損失數十億美元。另外，巴菲特表示，他亦投資了2.44億美元於愛爾蘭兩間銀行，他當時認為股價廉宜，但現時股價只值2700萬美元。

Berkshire Hathaway Reports Worst Year Ever [華爾街日報]

Investment
Mr. Buffett conceded in his letter that he "did some dumb things" in the past year, such as boosting the company's holdings of the oil giant ConocoPhillips when oil prices were near their peak. Since then, oil prices have tumbled and shares of ConocoPhillips and many other energy outfits are down sharply. Mr. Buffett said he believes "odds are good that oil sells far higher in the future than the current $40 to $50 price. But so far I have been dead wrong."

He also said he made a $244 million investment in two Irish banks "that appeared cheap." At year-end, Berkshire wrote the holdings down to their market value of $27 million, an 89% loss on the investment.

The letter also provided new details on some moves Mr. Buffett made in late 2008 as the credit crisis worsened. Berkshire invested $14.5 billion in fixed-income securities from companies such as General Electric Co. and from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. To fund the purchases, the letter says, he sold part of his holdings in Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble Co.--"holdings I would have preferred to keep," he said.

In late September, he agreed to buy $5 billion of perpetual preferred stock with a 10% yield from Goldman Sachs, which was reeling after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Berkshire also received warrants to purchase Goldman common stock at $115 a share. While the vote of confidence in Goldman by the savvy investor temporarily helped stabilize the bank's share price at around $120, since then Goldman's stock has wilted to well below $100.

In October, Mr. Buffett agreed to invest $3 billion, and potentially as much as $6 billion, in General Electric preferred shares, which also sport a 10% yield. Friday, GE said it would slash its quarterly stock dividend by more than two-thirds to 10 cents a share, letting the company salt away about $9 billion a year. The move doesn't have an impact on Mr. Buffett's preferred holdings, however.