信貸緊縮

雖然各大央行不斷向市場注資，而香港也有任五招，但市場仍然資金緊張，以香港為例，一個月拆息仍然處於4.1厘的偏高水平。雖然美國有可能再次減息，但由於銀行間缺乏互信，風險溢價偏高，以致銀根不斷抽緊，此乃投資大忌。綜觀客觀形勢，小羊本人估計商品及資產價格將會繼續下跌，直至美國樓價見底及各銀行的資產負債表有improvement，才真正有條件轉勢，而銀根抽緊將加速對沖基金de-leveraging及倒閉。


經濟日報：
銀行信貸緊縮 加劇環球衰退
2008年10月4日 星期六
本港經濟受外圍拖累，有外資證券行大膽預測，香港經濟今年第四季開始連續兩季收縮，出現衰退。環球金融風暴將拆息大幅抽高、信貸緊縮加劇，正開始打擊環球實體經濟，勢把放緩的經濟推進衰退，香港恐難置身事外。 美國眾議院今早表決七千億美元救市方案，各界預期方案可獲通過，暫穩崩潰邊緣的環球金融體系。然而，縱使方案通過，讓信貸市場解凍，但禍源的美國樓價下跌遠未完結，金融業互信仍然薄弱，信貸緊縮恐仍持續，歐美銀行同業拆息過去兩周不斷升，香港拆息亦見扯高，導致金管局出五招助紓緩。 銀行因互不信任，同業間不願拆借，令同業拆息高企，看似與一般市民無關，因市民並不會在銀行同業拆借市場借錢，但銀行乃百業之母，若同業拆借市場停頓，令資金難以流向各經濟環節，便如人體的心臟轉弱，向各器官泵輸血液急減，性命瀕危。 事實上，銀行同業拆息高企凸顯的信貸緊張，已燒至消費與投資等實體經濟環節，且打擊日益增強。 消費方面，美國九月汽車銷售量按年暴跌兩成七，原因不單是消費者購車意慾下降，還因即使美國人願買車，但銀行收緊信貸，令他們無法借錢付款。此令本已財務不穩的美國三大車廠，向美國政府求救。 投資方面，銀行收緊信貸固令中小企欠資金投資，即使巨無霸兼業務穩健如快餐連鎖店麥當勞，據報在美國亦碰上信貸阻礙，被迫放慢全國咖啡專櫃擴張計劃。
何況，信貸緊張不只在銀行業，企業用以周轉流動資金的商業票據市場亦正收縮、利率上揚，令美國企業在流動資金上亦飽受壓力，遑論進一步投資。 美國經過數年的經濟泡沫，本已進入放緩調整期，金融海嘯加劇信心危機與信貸緊縮，很可能成為壓斷駱駝背的最後一根稻草，將美國經濟推進衰退，拖累全球。

香港難存僥倖 要作嚴冬準備
更不能忽視的，是美國信貸緊縮已不單蔓延歐洲，更已燒往南美洲與亞洲，可說環球無淨土，此無疑對步向不景的環球經濟，再狠踩一腳，令一隻腳已踏入衰退的歐洲、日本等雪上加霜。
金融海嘯催生全球經濟衰退，香港是高度開放的小型經濟體，恐難倖免，港府與市民要作好抵禦寒冬準備。


摩通料港經濟 本季陷衰退
2008年10月4日 星期六
全球金融市場陷入混亂之際，證券商花旗和摩根大通近日先後預測，本港已步入或將於第四季步入衰退。
摩根大通昨並將本港今、明年實質經濟增長預測，調低至3.5%及1.8%，為市場最悲觀的預測。
估末季起 連續兩季負增長
按照一般定義，連續兩季出現按季經濟負增長，便屬「衰退」。以本港情況而言，第二季本地生產總值（GDP）按季已錄得負增長1.4%，摩通中國經濟師王黔昨估計，本港經濟上季或有輕微反彈，估計按季增長為0.2%，不過，第四季和明年首季將再度跌至負增長，分別錄得負增長1%及0.5%，換言之，今年第四季正式陷入衰退。
另一方面，花旗則估計，本港或已步入衰退。
摩通昨將本港明年經濟增長預測，由原來的4.5%大幅調降至只有1.8%，為自2002年以來最低增長，也遠低於本港過去20年的平均增長率4.4%。摩通解釋，下調本港增長預測，主要是配合該行預測，美國將於今年第四季或明年首季步入衰退。
該行表示，全球經濟日趨接近衰退，加上預期中國的商品出口增長大幅放緩，令作為地區貿易中轉港的香港受累；此外，本港股市及樓市下跌，產生負財富效應、利率上升及就業市場疲弱等，均產生不利影響。
高盛估今年增長放緩至4.2%
不過，摩通估計，是次衰退只屬溫和，除通脹壓力開始紓緩，可望令購買力被擠壓情況逐步減退；其次，港元在實質有效滙率的基礎上隨美元反彈，亦有助遏抑輸入通脹。
此外，該行估計年底前美國將減息0.5厘，加上政府的財政支持、基建投資等，均可望提供緩衝。
另一方面，高盛重申，預測本港下半年增長由上半年的近6%，降至3%以下，全年增長估計由去年的6.4%，放緩至4.2%，2009年則為4%。



Ｗall Street Journal
OCTOBER 4, 2008
Smaller Hedge Funds Struggle As Money Pipeline Dries Up
Day of Reckoning Arrives Fast for Some Sellers
By JENNY STRASBURG


Mark Sellers III's hedge-fund career peaked this summer about the time he turned 40. Then it cratered. Mr. Sellers, who once managed close to $300 million, is shutting his Chicago-based firm and retiring, at least until his distaste for the pressures of managing other people's money subsides.
"What I've learned about the hedge-fund business is that I hate it," says Mr. Sellers, a former stock analyst with Morningstar. "I have enough money that I don't have to work, and why should I put myself under that much stress?"

The past year has been brutal for hedge funds, and September looks to be the worst month in a decade in the industry, according to Hennessee Group, which advises hedge-fund investors. Funds of all sizes have been battered, but the bigger players can often endure rough times.
The day of reckoning can arrive remarkably fast for managers with assets under the half-billion-dollar mark, like Mr. Sellers, who started July with performance up 50% on the year but by the end of last month was down 20%.
"There are real questions about who can stay in business," says Andrew Fishman, president of Shonfeld Group, a New York brokerage and trading firm whose hedge-fund clients range from about $200 million to $3 billion in assets. The most vulnerable are under $1 billion, he says. "There are guys who should not have been in business, and this will force them out, but guys don't want to give up easily."
Smaller hedge funds have advantages, such as being nimble in shifting markets. But they also have their burdens. Many are unable to attract big institutional investors such as pension funds and endowments, which are less likely to flee when times get tough. Institutions have poured so much money into hedge funds that total assets under management surged fivefold this decade to about $2 trillion this year, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.
But most of the big money lately has gone to multibillion-dollar funds.
Smaller hedge funds are the most likely to fail in today's markets, industry experts say. They often have shorter track records, and their overhead expenses eat up more of the fees they collect, leaving less wiggle room when profits decline. A lot of smaller managers hoped to increase their funds' size this year by attracting new money, but as the economy declined, that pipeline dried up.
Three-fourths of the estimated 10,000 hedge funds globally have less than $500 million in assets, according to Hedge Fund Research.
"Smaller shops have pluses and minuses," says Colby Harlow, 30, who oversees $150 million in stock investments at Harlow Capital Management LLC in Dallas.
"One of the drags on you is you have to figure out everything yourself." Last month, for example, he says, that meant going from being aggressively short financial stocks (betting that they would fall) one day to waking up and complying with short-selling restrictions handed down by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Mr. Harlow's fund finished September up about 5% so far this year, according to an investor. It's a lean operation catering mostly to rich, or "high net worth," investors. Mr. Harlow does the trading. He has an administrative assistant and a marketing person.
Bloomberg News/Landov
Mark Sellers III, of Sellers Capital, is closing his fund.
Much of the money coming out of hedge funds right now belongs to wealthy individuals, who are the bread and butter of many smaller funds. Some of these clients are first-time hedge-fund investors, who put money with former Wall Street traders now running small hedge funds. In a trend that is hurting funds big and small, some wealthy investors made their foray through what are called "funds of hedge funds," which can collect money from hundreds of clients and charge a fee to pick managers for them.
These funds-of-funds, as a whole, have lost more money this year than the average hedge fund industrywide, so they're seeing big withdrawals. In Mr. Sellers's case, his fund had profited handsomely since 2003 by taking concentrated stakes in companies on the rise.
The summer was rough, but September was really "ridiculous," he says. Mr. Sellers contends that he probably could be riding out this year's storm if his client base included bigger, less-skittish clients. But institutions wouldn't allocate to him because he has had substantial swings in performance, even during years he has finished with gains of 20% or 50%.
"The institutions, I think they understand my strategy, it's just that they can't deal with the volatility," he says. "This intense aversion to volatility makes managers make bad decisions."
As his numbers got worse, he decided that enough investors would want to pull money out and that holding on until some of his biggest investments rebounded wasn't plausible, or attractive on a personal level. He's considering taking a couple of years to write a book about investing.
"The deciding factor was in early September, when I had to cancel a trip to Alaska which my wife and I had been looking forward to for a long time, because I couldn't be away from the office during such a tumultuous period," Mr. Sellers told investors in a Sept. 18 letter disclosing his plans. "I have found myself neglecting my personal life (friends, family) in order to put 100% of my energy into managing the fund. I can't continue to do that; it isn't healthy."
Mr. Sellers's fund now holds just two stocks -- the biggest by far being Contango Oil & Gas Co., which has lost half of its value since June. He's staying with those in hopes they'll rebound.
"It has been kind of fun to watch it -- the stock price, it's so ridiculous," says Mr. Sellers. "Well, it's not so fun for the other investors."—Gregory Zuckerman and Cassell Bryan-Low contributed to this article.